2020 | Ray Dalio
What happens when a empires rise and fall, and reserve currencies rise and fall?
This is the question that hedge fund investor Ray Dalio seeks to answer in his latest book sharing the internal research, patterns, and historical case studies that his hedge fund, Bridgewater, has used to better model and understand the coming circumstances of the decline of United States empire dominance, the rise of China, and the inevitable devaluation or decline of the US Dollar as world reserve currency.
Examining in detail the political and economic ramifications historically of similar transfers of power from the Dutch to the British, and then from the British to the United States in the past 500 years, as well as the long term dominance (other than the period from 1880-1980) of China, Dalio paints a transparent and bleak picture of potential outcomes for history moving forward that cut against the delusional mental model most have held onto of inevitable, unending United States world economic, political, cultural, and military dominance.
Released one chapter at a time on LinkedIn and on his site, the book is set to release in September 2020 and takes on heightened relevance given the rhetoric coming from the United States and China as a result of COVID-19 and following years of mounting trade tensions.